It hasn’t been obvious just looking at individual polls conducted since the Tories unleased their volley of attack ads against Michael Ignatieff, however when you look at a rolling-5 poll average of the last few polls, the data now suggests that the gap between the Liberals and the Tories has contracted by statistically significant margins.
On the plus side for progressives, the Bloc Québécois seems unaffected by these ads and remains relatively strong in Quebec (though certainly not invincible as before), the Greens have rebounded slightly and the NDP has also rebounded by statistically significant margins.
I have always said that the lower the popularity of the main two parties, the better off Canada is irrespective of which of the other parties gains the lion’s share of the remaining popular support. These ads seem to be accomplishing precisely this.
While predictions tend to make fools of the predictors, I will venture out and predict interesting times ahead.