New Poll Released: NDP continue their rebound

A new poll was released by SES which puts the federal party standings as follows:

Lib: 33,  Con: 33,  NDP: 17,  Bloc: 10,  Green: 7

This poll demonstrates some interesting results which blog pundits everywhere are interpreting in a variety of manners which I feel are important to correct with the Paulitics rolling and weighted average long-term trend lines.

#1) Steve V from Far and Wide writes (here) that, with this poll, Dion’s honeymoon is over.  Actually, the polling trend lines suggest that Dion’s honeymoon was over a month ago in mid-January.

#2) Lizt on Scott Tribe’s website (here) comments (in retort to somebody who presented my polling data) that SES is the most accurate polling firm.  Lizt is correct, SES would appear to be the closest single polling firm, but that said, a multiple aggregate of polls is far mroe accurate than even the most accurate polling firm. 

In addition to these points, I feel that a significant feature of this poll is the continued resurgence of the NDP from their absolutely dismal low in mid-december 2006.  They’re still nowhere near where they once were, but the NDP is once again on the rise.

So, with this poll, the Paulitics Polling Resource two trendlines are as follows:


(click here for the long-term Paulitics weighted and rolling average trend lines)

13 Responses to “New Poll Released: NDP continue their rebound”

  1. 1 Karen in College 11 February, 2007 at 1:23 am

    Dion appears to be a dud, and I don’t mean sexually so that he had to adopt no erectile dysfunction or anything.
    Dion just has no personality it is just not there. I vote NDP because I’m on social assistance as a single mom. But if I had to pick a leader it would be Harper even though he reminds a bit of Napolean with his powerfull handle on everything.

  2. 2 Karen in College 11 February, 2007 at 1:27 am

    I agree with Karen, Harper is kind of like Napolean but I like that. Dion I think his dog looks mean and for some reason I just don’t like Dion. I cannot put my finger on it but there is just something kind of creepy about the guy and I don’t know what it is. As far as the poll goes I think Dion honeymoon is over and it may be divorce time soon.

  3. 3 Grampa & Grandma 11 February, 2007 at 1:31 am

    Well the conservatives are changing and the Liberals seem to have morphed into some kind of Mickey Mouse organization.
    Liberals are not the party I voted for back in 1968, it seems the Liberals are a party of activits now.

  4. 4 SteveV 11 February, 2007 at 9:39 am

    “the polling trend lines suggest that Dion’s honeymoon was over a month ago in mid-January.”

    “a multiple aggregate of polls is far mroe accurate than even the most accurate polling firm.”

    You provide the answer why you couldn’t conclude the honeymoon was over a month ago :)

  5. 5 paulitics 11 February, 2007 at 10:35 am

    Steve V – I suppose a possible compromise between our two positions would have been if it was written that, with this poll, we have further evidence that Dion’s honeymoon was over.

    I do, however, still feel that my point does have merit (although I’m certainly not contesting that your point is without merit). An aggregate of five polls usually has an MOE of +/- 1.5%-1.9% and the Paulitics trend lines did demonstrate the end of Dion’s honeymoon much earlier than yesterday. For instance: with the Environics poll released around January 11th, the weighted-average trend line of the Liberals first dipped within 1.9% of the Conservatives’ trend line. On the following poll released (Strategic) less than a week later, BOTH Liberal trend lines dipped within 1.8% of the Conservatives trend lines.

    If you would like to see the graph that I published on January 16th, demonstrating this fact, you may access it here:

    So I actually did conclude that the Liberal honeymoon was over a month ago.

  6. 6 SteveV 11 February, 2007 at 11:09 am

    Where is the Strategic Poll that had the Conservatives at 31%, you only have two polls since the new year- shaky conclusion IMHO. Anyways.

  7. 7 paulitics 11 February, 2007 at 12:50 pm

    Steve V – Did you read my polling resoure page?

    I have 6 polls in the new year, not 2.

    #1) There’s the SES poll on which we’re commenting now.

    #2) There’s the Leger poll of Jan. 21 which I discuss here:

    #3) There’s the Decima poll of Jan. 17 which I discuss here:

    #4) There’s the Strategic poll of Jan. 16 which I also discuss at the same time as the Decima poll above.

    #5) There’s the Environics poll of Jan. 11 which I discuss here:

    #6) Lastly, there’s the Decima poll of Jan. 2 which I disucss here:

    As for your question as to where you can find the Strategic poll which has the conservatives at 31%. You can either refer to #4) above, or you can refer to my polling resource page or you can refer here for the news story:

    My conclusions are anything but shaky – I have one more poll than I need to conduct a rolling-5-poll avereage wholly within the new year and my sources are well documented if you had wanted to check them out.

  8. 8 SteveV 11 February, 2007 at 5:18 pm

    I looked at the graph you linked too, I guess it’s old news :)

  9. 9 verbena19 11 February, 2007 at 8:54 pm

    Go NDP!

    btw, I think April Reign is the one who made your nice blog button. She’s very good with graphics, and has made some for me too. You’ll have to ask her for the codes, I guess. I don’t know how to do any of that, and I don’t know how to put your button on my site. But I am putting in your link now. You asked for people to let you know when they link to you, so I’m letting you know.

    You have a good blog, interesting content. I’ll be a regular visitor. btw, I’m also linked to you via BloggingChange. :)

    Annamarie (Verbena19)

  10. 10 Red Jenny 13 February, 2007 at 11:50 am

    I hate the politics of personality – the truth is you can’t ever know a public figure’s personality, only their actions and if you’re lucky their stand on issues.

    It’s not as bad as the US yet though, where all the coverage of candidates is about the individuals and never the issues – it’s covered like a horse race, as some have said.

  11. 11 paulitics 13 February, 2007 at 3:31 pm

    Red Jenny – I agree with you 100%.

    I suppose to some extend I can be accused of perpetuating this horse-race scenario with my Polling Resource page. However, that said, I do have a personal interest in these numbers not so much because I like the people in any one of the parties more than the others (although I do generally know and like more New Democrats than other partisans) but rather because I see this as an indicator of the rise and fall of ideas, value-sets and world-views which ultimately shapes the politics of the nation.

    For instance, in the latest poll, it was suggested that 1/3 of Canadians were conservative; 1/3 were liberal and the remaining 1/3 (34%) were actually to the left of the liberals supporting various either anti-capitalist/ecological/social-democratic or parties. To me this is interesting as it presents almost an Aristotelian conception of the “golden mean” of politics, which, especially in the former British and Anglo-saxon world, is virtually unheard of. I am very interested, therefore, in how the rise and fall of the strength of this final 1/3 shapes and influences the conduct of the remaining 2/3 or rather how it could shape political conduct.

    That said, I fully recognize and agree with your concern that this practice of mine can (and often does) degenerate into a politics of what Marx called the “Cult of Personality” much like what US political discourse has now completely embraces.

  12. 12 Allison 11 April, 2007 at 8:43 pm

    “Dion I think his dog looks mean and for some reason I just don’t like Dion. I cannot put my finger on it but there is just something kind of creepy about the guy and I don’t know what it is.”

    What does his dog looking mean have to do with anything? Anyway, I have to say that I think there’s a lot more “creepy-ness” about Harper than there is to Dion.

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