With the latest Decima poll released earlier this week, there’s now evidence to suggest that any momentum towards recovery which the Tories had enjoyed only a few weeks ago, is now gone.
The Tories began their slow slide down from the 38% range in the Paulitics Polling Resource around April of this year. However right when their rolling average trend line slammed into the comparatively stagnant Liberal rolling average trend line, they bounced back from just over 32% back up to 36%.
It is this latest rebound which has effectively been halted and the Tories are now dropping faster or at least as fast as any party has dropped in the polls in the past 12 months. The only two other instances of parties dropping approximately this fast in the polls in the last 12 months have been:
(1) The New Democrats between November 13 and December 13 2006 who dropped 18% to 12% in rolling averages; and
(2) The Liberals between mid-December 2006 and early March 2007 who dropped 10 points from 38% to 28%.
Now this does not mean that the Tories are in a crisis or anything. Their rate of decent may be greater at this point than either the Liberals or the New Democrats’ lines were in these two previous times, but the Tories’ fall hasn’t been going on for very long.
Long and short of it is: Things are definitely interesting, but I wouldn’t want to put money on what will happen by the end of the summer let alone next week.
With this latest poll (and the Leger poll which I hadn’t previously included in my master list), the Paulitics Polling Resource now stands like this:
For National Results and long term trends in party support, click here.
For a breakdown of party support at the provincial and regional level, click here.