Now available: The 2009 Canadian federal election projection model

Federal election projection model

Paulitics is proud to present the free, downloadable Paulitics Projection Model.

Paulitics was the #1 most accurate election forecaster for the 2007 Ontario Provincial election and the Paulitics Projection Model was able to accurately predict 96% of all 2008 federal election results*. This powerful tool is now available at your finger tips for free.

You may download it by clicking the button below.

Please note: Once you download the document, you will see a prompt asking you whether you would like to allow “macros” or not. You must click “allow macros” for the program to work.

download

This program operates on Microsoft Excel. It has been tested and proven to work on Microsoft Excel 2003 and Microsoft Excel 2007 (for Windows Vista). The program should work on earlier versions of Excel, but it has not been tested on these earlier versions. If you have any questions or problems running the program, please feel free to post a comment below.

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*Based on entering the 2008 election result data into the 2006 projection model.

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12 Responses to “Now available: The 2009 Canadian federal election projection model”


  1. 1 Damien 19 July, 2009 at 11:21 am

    Hi Paul,

    I’m very interested in your model, could you tell us a bit about it?

  2. 2 paulitics 19 July, 2009 at 11:26 am

    Hi Damien,

    Absolutely I’d be happy to talk about it but I’m not quite sure where to begin. Is there anything in particular you’d like to know?

  3. 3 Damien 19 July, 2009 at 9:08 pm

    First off, that’s a lovely spreadsheet you made, very easy on the eyes.

    I guess I’ll start with what I see from a users perspective first. What is the difference between the geometric and arithmetic projections? The only things that I can think of off the top of my head that are divided into those categories are means.

    The other thing I wanted to know what general method you were using?. From what I’ve seen in other attempts, there are two major methods. The first would be what I would call the British method, where they take the riding by riding results from the previous election, and then add or subtract the estimated popular vote swing to each party in each riding to produce a new map. The second method would be a probabilistic construction from scratch, where various demographics and historical trends are combined with polls to try and assign a probability of a riding giving the seat to a certain party. I guess what I’m after is a brief description of methodology, or if you don’t want to give away your secrets, your perceived pros and cons of the model.

    In any case, I think it’s good to have some projection models for Canadian elections appear on the web. I remember looking for similar things during the 2008 election, and all I could find was people trying to guess each riding’s outcome manually, based on local (horribly inaccurate) polling and gut feelings.

  4. 4 paulitics 20 July, 2009 at 7:05 pm

    Hi Damien,

    Unfortunately the model does not look at any specific circumstances of one particular riding or another (yet). Stay tuned because maybe if there’s enough demand I might be willing to take the plunge and include that in an updated version.

    The arithmetic projection is exactly the method used in the UK to predict their elections. The geometric projection is the method used by Hill & Knowlton and the Antweiler forecaster to predict elections here in Canada.

    If you’d like some more technical information on the specific differences between the two models, I did include a write-up about them in the projection model itself. Right when you open up the projection model when you’re looking at the home page, you’ll see that the far right button reads “methodology” and if you click that it will take you to the write-up.

    I hope that answers your questions. If not, feel free to drop me another line.

    Paul

  5. 5 Election Watcher 21 July, 2009 at 12:30 pm

    Hey Paul,

    Nice website, and beautiful spreadsheet! I’m getting buggy results with the arithmetic projections though: certain ridings that should change don’t. I noticed this when entering vote shares with a 7% lead of the Bloc over the Grits in Quebec, and Jeanne-Le Ber didn’t switch. Then I experimented with the Dippers at 100% in Ontario, and all other parties at 0. The NDP gained, but didn’t even get a majority in Ontario!

    I haven’t checked carefully, but the geometric projections seem fine.

    Again, great blog, and I’ll be a regular visitor :)

  6. 6 Damien 21 July, 2009 at 5:49 pm

    Silly me, the explanation was there all along. Chalk that one up to laziness. It’s interesting the large difference in the geometric and arithmetic results (though not surprising really considering the methods used). If I had to bet on it, I’d say the arithmetic is more accurate, at least for the 2 larger parties. We shall have to wait and see though.

  7. 7 paulitics 21 July, 2009 at 7:28 pm

    Hi Election Watcher,

    The Arithmetic projection is based on the vote change, not the absolute value you enter into the projection model. The Arithmetic projection takes the vote change from the last election and then simply adds or subtracts that change from the results to each riding in the province or region in question. That’s why you can have a scenario where you enter, for example, 0% for the Conservatives but they will still hold on to seats in Ontario in the Arithmetic Projection. The Arithmetic projection doesn’t see that “0” for the Conservatives in Ontario (Or Liberals or NDP etc…) as a zero. It sees the zero as “-39.2%” (because the Conservatives received 39.2% in Ontario in the last election so it just subtracts 39.2% from the conservative vote total in every riding). If the Conservatives won a riding in Ontario by 39.3% or more over their nearest competitor, then the Arithmetic projection would still put that as a Conservative win while the Geometric projection would give the Tories zero votes.

    I hope that answers your question but feel free to drop me another line if not or if you have any more questions.

    Cheers,

    Paul

    • 8 Election Watcher 21 July, 2009 at 8:42 pm

      Thanks for your reply Paul, but it doesn’t explain the issue… The way I checked Ontario was by entering 100% for the NDP and 0% for all other parties *simultaneously*. So the Tories showed -39.2, Libs -33.8, and NDP +81.8. Since the NDP couldn’t have been more than 100% behind the CPC and LPC in any riding, this should imply that under a uniform swing model, the CPC and LPC can’t win any seat, since the CPC loses 121% with respect to the NDP and the LPC loses 115.6%. Yet, the arithmetic projection shows the CPC and LPC winning a majority between them… Am I missing something?

  8. 9 M Btok 27 July, 2009 at 12:35 am

    A heads up here folks,

    In the last election the USA had, the citizens were tricked into electing a fascist Marxist Government!
    That rrick was manipulated by Global Elitists in charge of building the “New World Order”! We have reason to believe that they may try to infiltrate Canadian Government in the same fashion using the Right Wing/Left Wing Paradyne!

    Here is how they do it!

    Two Party Paradyne Elitist Bilderberg Trick

    The Elitists hone two candidates in their employ and train one to be a Left wing Candidate a Liberal or Democrat then take the other and hone him or her to be a Right wing candidate a Conservative or Republican! Via the elitists scientific study of mind control methods and psychology these two candidates are trained to do the right moves at the right time in order to be elected in various countries wherby they will arrange financial benefits and various controls of these countries for the financial and power gain of the Elitists!

    Let’s say the elitist boss in this example is named David from the Bilderberg group! And the Left wing candidate is Obooba the Liberal or Democrat and the Right wing candidate is Sarah Conservative or Republican!

    Now because the elite are the super wealthiest on earth they have lots of Corporate Lobbying and money power and they are able to supremely promote and and create great PR and convincing extraordinary Press Kits for these two candidates which enables them to gather much credibility among the voters and are heavily promoted by David and the elitist organizations to become the Dominant candidates for the election!

    Now David the Elitist boss really doesn’t care who wins between these two as both candidates have been honed to perfection to be able to produce results for all the Elitists and Bilderberg Group and David their Puppet Master!

    Now these two candidates can come out on the scene in an election competition and impress their voters!

    So if Liberal – Democrat Obooba gets voted in as Prime Minister or President depending on the country, he will provide and perform nicely first and foremost for David and the Elitists! In spite of the oath he has taken to perform to the best of his ability for his country!

    Should Sarah Conservative – Republican get elected as President or Prime Minister depending on the country, she will provide and perform nicely first and foremost for David and the Elitists, despite the oath she has taken to perform for her country!

    In this scenario regardless of which way the election goes – the Elitists win!

    The head of the Elitists may not always be from The Bilderberg Group, they could also be from one of these affiliate organizations: Council on Foreign Relations ( CFR ), Trilateral Commission ( TC ), Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund ( IMF ),

    World Health Organization ( WHO ), United Nations

    This explains the basic procedure for the Left Right Wing Paradyne Election game very basically so that it is easy to understand what is happening!

    The Illuminatti play this game of divide and conquer in most of their ploys!

    Eg; man against woman, Black against White, Israel against Iran, England against Germany, Gay against Straight, Palestinian against Jewish etc. Throughout almost the last 100 years the Elitists have been manipulating these problems and wars around the world for their financial gain and power! They love to keep people divided and enemies as this all goes toward the Elitists benefit – if people won’t join together to help one another the Illuminatti Elitists will always be able to defeat the citizens of the world!
    Paul Revere and Friend Btok

  9. 10 M Btok 27 July, 2009 at 12:40 am

    Re: Sorry about the TYPO: Should have read, That trick was manipulated by Global Elitists——-

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