Globe and Mail grossly inflates Tory support in Atlantic Canada

A Decima poll has just been released to the press which, for the first time in a very long while, shows the Liberals regaining the lead over the Conservatives.

However, in their reporting of the poll, the authors of the Globe and Mail piece falsely claim that the Conservatives have been leading in the polls in Atlantic Canada.  The article states that

“In Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives had been leading for most of the year…”

This is so far from the truth that it even stretches the imagination as to how the Globe and Mail could be so completely and demonstrably off in its research.

To illustrate how the Conservatives have actually not  in fact been, as the Globe suggests, leading in Atlantic Canada for the past year, consider this rolling average of all polls conducted in the region by all polling firms. 

2007-12-09-atlantic.png

So, not only have the Tories not been leading in Atlantic Canada for most of the year (or any portion of the year for that matter) but the Tories are actually down from their 2006 election results by a statistically significant margin (and indeed have been down from said showing for quite some time).  (see also Polling Report’s stats for Atlantic Canada which confirm what my stats are showing above, albeit in a much more messy fashion).

4 Responses to “Globe and Mail grossly inflates Tory support in Atlantic Canada”


  1. 1 Scott Tribe 19 December, 2007 at 6:48 pm

    I’m sure the Globe means the Conservatives “leading in the poll we sponsor while we ignore other poll results”, but your point is well taken.

    Now the only thing is to see if your wording on this gets you another “actionable” claim from someone oversensitive to being told they’re factually inaccurate :)

  2. 2 Jay 19 December, 2007 at 7:22 pm

    That error is repeated on all the news sites. So its coming from the Canadian Press or the pollster in question.

  3. 3 paulitics 19 December, 2007 at 9:04 pm

    Scott, no even if we only take Decima polls, the statement is still wildly inaccurate. Decima has consistently had the Grits leading the Tories in Atlantic Canada for the past year in almost every poll they’ve released (I think there might be two or three exceptions though).

  4. 4 Doug 23 December, 2007 at 1:17 pm

    Be careful, Paul. Pointing out facts can get you into legal trouble…


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