La Presse joins Paulitics in predicting an NDP victory in Outremont

Just over two months ago, I used a variety of polling data and financial data from all of the parties to suggest that an NDP victory in the upcoming Outremont by-election was very likely.  In the 4 simulations I ran, the NDP won 3 of them and only lost the 4th just barely.

Yesterday, the francophone newspaper La Presse released the first and only poll which asked voters in the riding of Outremont who they were voting for.

The poll confirmed — kind of — the predictions I made in early July.  It matched the order in which I suggested the parties would finish — NDP then Liberal then Bloc then Tories.  Although my analysis had the race as being much closer than the La Presse poll suggests it will be.

Either way, it’s going to be an interesting race and, if Dion can pull off an 11th hour stay of execution for the Liberals, then, at the very least, La Presse can join me in eating humble pie and I won’t have to eat it alone.

2 Responses to “La Presse joins Paulitics in predicting an NDP victory in Outremont”


  1. 1 Ron 15 September, 2007 at 11:52 pm

    By-elections, for political junkies, are always fun to watch. This time, the riding of Outremont is as tense and exciting as any full blown election. The results are bound to be cussed and discussed for days. Maybe you “progressives” can lay of us “regressives” for one day – a few Conservative votes going the NDP’s way might grease the wheels for a NDP victory. In this we have a common purpose – keep the Liberal from winning the riding. Good luck (can’t believe I am saying that) – will be reading blogs til the wee hours Tuesday morning.

  2. 2 paulitics 16 September, 2007 at 12:06 am

    Ron, I agree fully with you on all counts. Whatever the reason, political junkies just always seem to have fun watching by-elections and I don’t know why we do.

    However, just to be fair and in the interest of openness, I should point out that I’m not a New Democrat and, as a general rule, I don’t normally support the NDP. (I don’t consider them ‘progressive’ enough for my liking.)


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