Just over two months ago, I used a variety of polling data and financial data from all of the parties to suggest that an NDP victory in the upcoming Outremont by-election was very likely. In the 4 simulations I ran, the NDP won 3 of them and only lost the 4th just barely.
Yesterday, the francophone newspaper La Presse released the first and only poll which asked voters in the riding of Outremont who they were voting for.
The poll confirmed — kind of — the predictions I made in early July. It matched the order in which I suggested the parties would finish — NDP then Liberal then Bloc then Tories. Although my analysis had the race as being much closer than the La Presse poll suggests it will be.
Either way, it’s going to be an interesting race and, if Dion can pull off an 11th hour stay of execution for the Liberals, then, at the very least, La Presse can join me in eating humble pie and I won’t have to eat it alone.