Tories tank in the East, NDP hits 1 year high nationally

cons-atlantic.pngWhat’s that loud “thwack” sound you’re hearing?  Why, it’s the Tories collapsing badly in Atlantic Canada from their once impressive showing.

Using the highly accurate technique used in the polling industry known as the ‘rolling average’ (the concept of which is familiar to anybody who’s visited the Paulitics Polling Resource), it is obvious that the Conservatives are in trouble in Atlantic Canada.

Now, before I show you the actual graph of rolling averages for every poll conducted in Atlantic Canada in the past six months, do keep in mind that the technique of rolling averages, by definition, makes huge swings in popular support less marked.  Thus, both spikes and drops in support tend to be flattened and appear less dramatic.

So, with that, let’s look at the rolling averages for Atlantic Canada courtesy of the Paulitics Provincial/Regional Polling Resource.

2007-07-25-atlantic.png

So, on the 28th of March of this year, the Conservatives were at roughly 37% in support in Atlantic Canada, which was an improvement over their 34.7% showing in the last federal election.  However, since then, the Conservatives have dropped 12.4% — not in an individual poll, but in the rolling average of polls.

Put another way: Take 3 Atlantic Canadians who voted Tory in the last election.  Now take one of them away and dress him in either NDP orange or Green and what’s left is how many Atlantic Canadians polls suggest would vote Tory in the next election.

Moreover, at the national level, we see declining support for both the Liberals and the Conservatives as demonstrated here (in fact the combined Liberal & Conservative parties’ rolling average has never, in the past 12 months of rolling averages, been lower than it currently is: 62.4%).

So take these two phenomena together and we have very bad news for the two mainstream, uber-capitalist parties; very good news for the three smaller, less capitalistic parties; and even worse news for Peter MacKay.

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See also:

Data suggests the NDP may win the Outremont by-election

A Proposal for Greens & the NDP: A “300″ Strategy

6 Responses to “Tories tank in the East, NDP hits 1 year high nationally”


  1. 1 JimBobby 1 August, 2007 at 8:16 am

    Whooee! Yer chart’s showin’ the Greenies gained almost 8% in Atlantic Canada. The Grits gained about 2%. The NDP remained stable. The Cons lost 10%. That 10% loss looks like it mostly went to the GPC.

    I wonder what a Central Nova poll would show. I’m guessin’ the shift from MacKay would be even greater than the regional average. The Red Green deal sure didn’t seem to hurt either of the co-operatin’ parties.

    The public’s startin’ to wake up to the patent unfairness of our archaic FPTP electoral system. The May-Dion deal is one factor that raised such awareness. The MMP proposal in Ontariariario and last year’s STV proposal in BC have helped Canajuns come to the inevitable conclusion that FPTP doesn’t deliver democracy.

    While FPTP still exists — and an end at the federal level is probably decades away — co-operation and coalition among the anti-Harper, anti-CPoC parties provides the best opportunity to rid us of this ultra-rightwing party that runs our country as if it had 100% support instead of the paltry 37% it attained in 2006.

    The Liberals and the Greens understand who they’re up against. Fer the Dippers, though, it’s the NDP against the world.

    JB

  2. 2 paulitics 1 August, 2007 at 8:25 am

    JimBobby – My reading of the chart is that from the start of the Conservative collapse in Atlantic Canada following March 28th, the NDP was the primary/sole benefactor of the Conservatives’ collapse until around the start of May. After that, the Conservatives kept sliding but their support now seems to be bleeding almost entirely to the Greens.

    So it’s just a matter of what you take the datam line to be. If you only look since around May 17th, I would agree with you that we see nothing of interest with the NDP’s numbers in this region. But if we stretch the datam line back to March 28th, we see something a bit more complex.

    However, on a completely unrelated topic, I would have to agree with you that our SMP electoral system – in all its Burkean glory – is archaic. However I do disagree with you that the May-Dion deal has brought any significant attention to how terrible our electoral system is (although I wish it had). Many electoral conservatives of the C.E.S. Franks ilk merely argued that the deal was proof that party leaders can make our electoral system work if they bend to the reality of the system.

    I would argue that it’s going to take something much bigger than the May-Dion deal to bring popular attention around to how profoundly undemocratic our electoral system is.

  3. 3 Mark 1 August, 2007 at 8:47 am

    With the NDP now at a year-long high, I hope we will no longer see references to the NDP “bleeding support since the last election” or “being squeezed out by the Greens” in the media.

    But that’s probably too much to ask …

  4. 4 JimBobby 1 August, 2007 at 8:56 am

    Thanks for the info re timeline.

    I’m still not seein’ that huge voter rejection of Lizzie and Stephane’s backroom dealin’ that the Diups and Cons were all yammerin’ about when the deal was brokered. It’s possible the deal didn’t help the LPC or GPC but the poll figures sure don’t indicate a rejection of the tactic. Quite the opposite, sez I. Maybe the Atlantic Canajuns is sayin’ they appreciate a willingness to work together toward a common goal.

    I would say Red Green was THE factor in raising awareness. It’s one of several factors. While not entirely unprecedented, May-Dion did garner a lot of media attention. Underlying the deal, was the question: “Why?” Some (certainly not all) observers twigged on to the explanation wrt undemocratic FPTP.

    Here in ON, we do have something fairly big in the referendum question on MMP. BTW, to my way of thinkin’, a PM who had 63% of the voters against his party in the last election is sufficient proof of the unfairness. I’ve tried to boil the argument down when I’m out proselytizin’ fer PR. I describe a close 4-way race and point out that with 25.1% for and 74.9% against, an MP can be elected. It’s very surprisin’ how many people will tell me they’d never thought of it that way.

    JB

  5. 5 JimBobby 1 August, 2007 at 8:56 am

    D’oh!! I would NOT say Red Green was THE factor in raising awareness.

  6. 6 paulitics 1 August, 2007 at 10:25 am

    JimBobby – I’m not a New Democrat, and I never claimed that there was a “huge voter rejection of Lizzie and Stephane’s backroom dealin’ that the Diups and Cons were all yammerin’ about when the deal was brokered.”

    In fact I said that it was a smart move on the part of Elizabeth May.

    As for PR, you’re preaching to the choir. While I’m on record as bashing the MMP variant of PR supported by the Ontario Citizens’ Assembly (I’m an STV supporter), I still agree with you that we’ve got a huge opportunity in front of us to fix our broken electoral system.

    However I just don’t think the Dion-May deal made a difference on that front.


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