Paulitics Regional/Provincial breakdown of party support

There has been a new update to the new Paulitics regional/provincial breakdown of party support as a part of the larger Paulitics polling resource.

New to this update is the inclusion of individual polls (polling firms and dates) issued for each province/region’s rolling-five poll average.

This update also demonstrates some interesting trends in support for various parties which I found surprising:

Surprise #1:  The Liberals, though roughly at the same level of support in the national polls that they were at during last year’s election, are probably in a worse position than they were going into election day last year.

The Liberals are up in only two provinces:  Alberta (where it will do them no good) and Quebec (where it will do them some good).  They are, however, stagnant in Atlantic Canada, BC and the Prairies, and, more importantly, are down by a statistically significant margin in Ontario – where they desperately need to make gains.

Surprise #2:  The Greens are no longer a party of just British Columbia & the West. 

In the last election the Greens’ best province was Alberta.  But what is interesting now is that the Greens are up by the greatest margin in Ontario, not BC.  The Greens are now in the double-digits in Ontario, BC and Alberta, with their performance in Ontario outstripping their previous strongholds.

For the updated Paulitics regional/provincial breakdown of party support, click here.

5 Responses to “Paulitics Regional/Provincial breakdown of party support”

  1. 1 MSS 28 March, 2007 at 12:57 pm

    The Greens surge in polling is impressive. But even if they could get these levels in an actual election, would they win a seat anywhere? I assume not, but if anyone knows of local trends that put them within striking distance of a seat, please tell.

  2. 2 paulitics 28 March, 2007 at 10:14 pm

    Nobody knows for sure, but my toying aroud with both the Hill and Knowlton Election Predictor and the UBC election forcaster both suggest that even if the Greens were to gain 2 or 3% more in voter preference, they still would fail to win a single seat anywhere. Of course this doesn’t take account of of Elizabeth May’s planned run in Central Nova, but that’s what the predictor models (which, admittedly are unreliable) suggest.

  3. 3 Terry 29 March, 2007 at 5:52 am

    Just an off-topic question – I’m looking to emigrate to Canada in the near future, hopefully to lecture in Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) and Marxist (literary) theory, and provide a better life for my family. Where would be the best place to look at moving to? It’s such a vast country that we don’t know where to start looking!

  4. 4 paulitics 29 March, 2007 at 9:23 am

    Terry – it’s entirely a matter of personal preference I presume. I’m based out of Ottawa and I quite like it. However the two main universities in Ottawa are both Liberal institutions rather than Marxist/progressive institutions. There are some progressive political science departments in BC as well as in York University in Toronto (which is actually rather strongly neo-Marxist and very progressive).

    If you’re just talking about cities without regard for those other considerations, I have a huge bias towards Montreal. It’s a very interesting blend of European and North American.


  5. 5 Terry 30 March, 2007 at 6:55 am

    Paul: Thanks very much for the advice. It’ll serve as a good starting point for some research. York University sounds like the perfect place to contact, although Montreal does sound fantastic too. I just want a better standard of living because surviving in Britain is not pleasant these days, unless of course, ‘one’ is very wealthy, of ‘good breeding’ and definately not from the North.
    Thanks again for the advice!

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