There have been three new polls released since the last update of the Paulitics polling resource, including an Ipsos-Reid poll released yesterday.
The latest poll has the parties standing as follows:
CON: 36; LIB: 34; NDP: 12; BLOC: 9; GREEN: 8 (source)
As evidenced by the latest 5 or 6 new polls released by various polling firms, it seems as though either there’s been a sudden, and unexplainable, decrease in the reliability of polling methodology or Canadian opinion appears to be increasingly unstable.
For instance, the Angus-Reid Strategies poll released on Feb. 27 had the Liberals at their lowest point since mid-July 2006 (26%) and the Decima poll released the following day confirmed this result showing the Liberals at 27%. Yet the latest Ipsos Reid poll above shows the Liberals and Conservatives within the margin of error.
Similarly, recent polls have shown the Conservatives varying wildly from a maximum of 40% to a minimum of 32%; Greens between a max of 13% and a minimum of 7%; and the Bloc has been received its lowest poll result since well before the 2006 election (7%) as well as it’s highest result in 5 months – both within a couple of weeks of each other.
With these new polls, even the Paulitics weighted and rolling averages are not moving along smoothly as they normally do, but are currently demonstrating a huge surge for the Liberals (although, most of this has to do with the two aforementioned dismal poll results for the Liberals being dropped from the five-poll averages).
The Paulitics trend lines now sit as follows:
Click here for the updated Paulitics Polling Resource, the long-term trend lines and the new Paulitics Provincial/Regional party breakdown