2 New Polls Released: Greens surge; Tories widen lead

With two new polls released, we’re seeing some interesting developments in the Paulitics Polling Resource.

The first poll released by Strategic — that’s right, the one which caused the Liberal blogosphere to explode — had the following results:

Lib:  29, Con:  34,  NDP:  14,  Bloc:  11,  Green:  12  (source)

The second poll released by Decima showed the following numbers:

Lib:  30, Con:  32,  NDP:  15,  Bloc:  9,  Green:  11 (source)

A few things are interesting about this pair of polls:

Firstly, the Conservatives have now taken a statistically significant lead in at least the weighted trend line and, for all intents and purposes, in the rolling trend line as well.

Secondly, the NDP continue to inch up in the polls at a rate which would make them competitive in about 2 years from now.

Thirdly and most significantly, after  a brief downturn by the Greens earlier this month, we now have the Greens once again charting new heights with these polls.  For the first time ever, the Greens have surpassed the Bloc not only on a given poll, but in their weighted avereage trend line.  With these polls, the Greens also have now broken the 10% threshold with at least one of the trendlines, for the first time ever – simultaneously becoming the first minor party in over 13 years to break this barrier.

Ladies and gentlemen, it seems as though the Greens are here to stay.

With these polls, the Paulitics Polling Resource has the parties standing as follows:

2007-02-22-results.JPG

(click here for the Polling Resource & long-term trend lines)

2 Responses to “2 New Polls Released: Greens surge; Tories widen lead”


  1. 1 JimBobby 22 February, 2007 at 3:02 pm

    As recently as yesterday, I had someone trying to brush off the “fringe” Greens as comparable to the Christian Heritage and Libertarian parties, neither of which get 1% at the ballot box. Looking at the figures wrt FPTP, the Cons could conceivably win a majority government with 32%-35% popular vote. The emergence of the GPC has thrown the old “40% rule” out the window.

    James Robert

  2. 2 paulitics 22 February, 2007 at 5:26 pm

    Jim Bobby – I have yet to see any statistical models which would suggest that the Conservatives could win a majority government with 32% of the vote. Have you come across anything which has shown this which you can share?


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