New Poll Released: NDP up, Greens down

A new poll has been released by Decima which puts the federal parties as follows:

Lib: 33,  Con: 32,  NDP: 15,  Bloc: 9,  Green: 8

This is now the fourth poll in a row to show a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives and the data is now so close that less 1/10th of one percent separates them on the rolling average trend line.

I suggested when the last poll was released that the NDP appeared to be starting a slow climb back up to their former heights and this poll seems to validate my prediction.  This is now the 7th poll in a row in which either the New Democrats’ rolling average trend line or weighted avereage trend line has increased.  While Layton and the New Democrats will certainly be happy with this, there’s serious doubt in my mind whether the NDP will be in a strong position for a possible spring election campaign if they keep this pace up.

Conversely, the Greens are down slightly from their rolling and weighted avereage high of 9%.  The drop isn’t statistically significant, but it’s getting close. 

The trend lines are as follows:

2007-02-16-results.JPG

(Click here for the Paulitics Polling Resource & long term trends)

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