The fate Elizabeth May’s by-election challenge

According to Elections Canada, Elizabeth May failed to win the London-North-Centre by-election.  The official results with all polls reporting in are:

Lib: 34.9%

Green: 25.9%

Cons: 24.4%

NDP: 14.1%

My predictions, based on the predictions of other bloggers, and various statistical techniques were:

Lib: 32.3%

Green: 18.9%

Cons: 24.9%

NDP: 23.1%

What I find interesting is how close my Liberal and Conservative numbers were to the actual results all the while my numbers failed to predict a massive shift from the New Democrats to the Greens.  It appears that regardless whether the Greens are on the left or not, NDP voters either don’t care, believe that the Greens are on the left, or believe Elizabeth May personally is on the left.

1 Response to “The fate Elizabeth May’s by-election challenge”


  1. 1 John Wright 27 June, 2009 at 1:18 am

    So, what’s your e-mail? What’s your phone number? What’s your address??

    What, you aren’t a coward are you???? Show us where you are…you have to have more than that “Paul Bernardo” lookalike picture, don’t you???

    C’mon, fess up…


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