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Canadian Federal Polls
Sondages fédéraux canadiens
UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 23, 2009
MISE À JOUR: 23 SEPTEMBRE , 2009
Polling trends since last election:
Les tendances des sondages depuis l’élection dernier:
(rolling average + individual polls)
(moyenne mobile + sondages particuliers)
All individual polls conducted since the last General Election:
Tous les sondages effectués depuis la dernière élection générale:
This page will be updated as regularly as polls are released
Cette page sera mise à jour aussi régulièrement que les sondages sont publiés
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I would like to extend my sincere thanks to Stephen Gordon of worthwhile.typepad.com for helping me with the French translations for this page.
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About the methodology:
The PAULITICS Polling Resource is based on a five poll rolling average system. Thus, time a new poll is released, that poll plus the four most recent are averaged together to form the trend lines depicted graphically above. If, more than five polls are released on any one given day, then more than five polls are used to generate the rolling average.
An example from September 16, 2008:
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Want to see how the Liberals, Conservaties, NDP, Bloc Québécois and the Greens are doing in the polls? For up to date Canadian federal polls from all the major polling firms: SES, Strategic, Ipsos-Ried, Decima, Environics and Léger, bookmark this page.
After reading the comment he left, I sent the following letter to John Wright (copies to other Ipsos-Reid email addresses I could find). I thought you might like a copy too.
Dear Mr. Wright:
This afternoon I came across the comment you left at the Paulitics site. I was disappointed to see such an unprofessional, ad hominem screed written by someone who acts as a professional firm’s public representative.
While I can understand that you may be irritated by this individual who persists in questioning your methodology rather than meekly accepting your rightness, your response was more on the order of someone resorts to gutter tactics and personal insults to divert attention from the weakness of their argument.
Your name-calling, insults and refusal to seriously address the questions raised in the Paulitics posts can only lead to one conclusion – that Paulitics concerns are very well founded.
This kind of behaviour undermines confidence in the integrity and reliability of Ipsos-Reid’s data and your interpretations. Until this series of posts culminating in your last comment, I’d always had a rather positive opinion of Angus Reid / Ipsos-Reid. I can’t say that now – if you’d behave so unprofessionally in this, how can you be trusted to behave with probity and integrity on other issues.
Tim Tempest
I would be interesting in seeing your trend-lines without the Angus-Reid and Ipsos Reid data. Wish I had the patience to sit and trend it out. Thanks for your site Paul. Even though I do not quite share all of your political philosophies, I visit frequently.
Two months now and no updates? I can guess what it would look like, but what is the value of this site if it is not current? Does this reflect author’s personal political leanings by the hesitancy to update because of current reality? I thought this was the one site that refleted all views by including all polls etc and welcoming all opinions. I used to took at look at this blog every week or so, but now find no call to do so…Like to update soon?
Just read Hugh’s comment. It’s funny what can happen in politics in two weeks. When the Libs started to slide thanks to Iggy’s drastic decision to stop supporting the Tories and therefore shed the Dion mantle he was being saddled with, I said short-term pain for long-term gain. It took awhile but the polls lately seem to indicate the Liberals’ fortunes are beginning to improve, and with that the Tories are sliding. It’ll probably take a few months, thanks to the goodwill Harper will get from his foreign trips and the Olympics, but the two parties should be neck-and-neck again by next spring. If I’m wrong, which hardly ever happens, and the Tories creep up a few percentage points, Harper will pull the plug, call an election after the G8 and go for a majority. I’m betting though that ship has sailed.
Hey Paul, are you all right or just busy with school again?
Hellllloooooo out there….? Has Paul left the building?