With three polling firms now reporting in confirming this fact, it is now clear that the governing Conservatives are, for the first time in this election campaign, facing some real trouble.
Since September 27th, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have dropped 4.8% in the Paulitics Polling Resource. What is more, this precipitous drop has now been confirmed by each of the big three polling firms which release daily tracking polls.
As the calculation illustrated right demonstrates, if the Conservatives continue on their current trend, it seems to me unlikely that they will form government even if all of this loss in support goes to the NDP, Greens and/or Bloc and not to the Liberals.
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The only problem is that there is also significant downward pressure on the Liberals. The party which is benefiting the most right now is the NDP. We could well end up with a parliament that is closer to 110-90-60-50 with the Bloc doing one of it’s best elections ever and still coming up last.
Hi Nick, I think that prediction is probably a wee bit optimistic for the NDP, but it’d certainly be interesting, in my humble opinion, were it to be realized.
As a general rule though, so long as the combined Liberal/Conservative vote & seat total is less than the election which preceded it, I’m happy.
Of course, since the Liberals don’t actually disagree with the Conservatives on any matter of substance, does it really matter if the next Parliament has a Liberative or a Conserveral government?
Not really.
Malcolm, you’re absolutely right to point that out. However, as I mentioned in my comment to Nick, if the next Parliament has FEWER Liberal AND Conservative seats than the Parliament which preceded it (which I’m certainly projecting right now) then I think there’s reason to be happy even if the two capitalist parties remain in power.
I’m an red tory… and even though I voted liberal, I like to see the conservatives form the government… why… because (a) dion gets replaced and the green shift is shelved, (b) harper has to take the blame for the declining home prices, job losses in the next year… and let see… in 2009 or 2010… election time… LIBERAL MAJORITY, and HARPER will finally be replaced.
ABC until the party DUMPS HARPER.
I don’t see the conservative numbers declining enough to make them anything other than the party with the mosts seats, but at least the majority they wanted seems less likely than it did a few weeks ago.
However, suppose the conservatives get the same number of seats as last time, or fewer seats, or even a few more seats but a decline in popular vote. Given that Harper violated his own fixed election date law to call this election based on the premise that parliament “wasn’t working”, might one not argue that another party or parties should be asked to form the minority government ?
With 120 seats, Harper can not argue that this election, which was NOT forced on him, has made parliament any more workable, or that he has received a mandate from the Canadian people to continue on the same course.
Time for a short lived coalition of the other parties to push through a
new electoral system that incorporates some element of proportionality !
Any combination of 155 Liberal and NDP might put a final nail in the Reform party.
John