There has been a new update to the new Paulitics regional/provincial breakdown of party support as a part of the larger Paulitics polling resource.
New to this update is the inclusion of individual polls (polling firms and dates) issued for each province/region’s rolling-five poll average.
This update also demonstrates some interesting trends in support for various parties which I found surprising:
Surprise #1: The Liberals, though roughly at the same level of support in the national polls that they were at during last year’s election, are probably in a worse position than they were going into election day last year.
The Liberals are up in only two provinces: Alberta (where it will do them no good) and Quebec (where it will do them some good). They are, however, stagnant in Atlantic Canada, BC and the Prairies, and, more importantly, are down by a statistically significant margin in Ontario – where they desperately need to make gains.
Surprise #2: The Greens are no longer a party of just British Columbia & the West.
In the last election the Greens’ best province was Alberta. But what is interesting now is that the Greens are up by the greatest margin in Ontario, not BC. The Greens are now in the double-digits in Ontario, BC and Alberta, with their performance in Ontario outstripping their previous strongholds.